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Wednesday, October 5, 2022

The Decisive Decade Of The American Century

    Wednesday, October 05, 2022   No comments

Before becoming the center of gravity of the modern civilization along with its broad Western coalition, Europe’s history became different from the rest of the world in that it was home to the deadliest armed conflicts in recorded history. The speed and rate of killing was matched only by the speed of American ascent to power and the rate of exploitation of human and natural resources. The weapons of mass destruction some Western states still store and their ability to unleash mercilessly crushing blows should make every reasonable person skeptical of the virtues of the civilization of superlatives.

Between the so-called world wars one and two, European countries killed between 40 to 60 million people of their own. During the first five years of the 1940’s alone, another 60 million European civilians were uprooted from their homes—27 million of them had left their own countries or had been driven out by force. Out of all this carnage, emerged the leading powers of the world with the United States representing and leading the so-called “free world”. In post-war world order, the Western bloc wielded two unmatchable weapons that ensured the subordination of the rest of the world: (1) The largest military force armed with the most destructive weapons humanity ever invented—nuclear weapons; and (2) a tightly controlled financial system tethered to the US dollar. The Western bloc used both the brute force of the military, including invasions, missile strikes from afar, and covert and overt coups to removed undesired regimes; and the soft power of sanctions that chokes the economies of unfriendly nation states. The deployment of these cruel weapons took place outside Europe and allied nation states. In this context, Europe did not suffer another war since the end of the second war and all Western states enjoyed the accumulation and concentration of wealth—making them home to about 80% of the global wealth. That streak of peace and prosperity came to an end when Russia launched its military operation in Ukraine.

As grave as the consequences of the European wars of the first half of the 20th century, the outbreak of a direct war between Russia and any NATO nation-state, especially one of NATO’s nuclear armed nations, will be catastrophic. Such a war in Europe, given the history of cruelty inflicted on each other by these warring factions, will be catastrophic because any one of the four declared nuclear-armed nations will not hesitate to use the weapons against the other, which will have repercussions not only in Europe but around the world.

Let’ s be specific despite the risks that come with predicting the outcome of an insanely fluid and ongoing event in which so many powerful actors are involved and are working to control its outcomes. These predictions are not privileged by any inside information that people in power or people connected to people in power possess. These predictions are based on an understanding of active and inactive, determinant and contributory systems whose outcomes are often beyond the control of anyone side. First, we will start with the facts and then list the systems that will determine the outcome of this conflict.

Fact 1: If Russia did not have nuclear weapons, the Western world would have invaded it before it invaded Ukraine. Moreover, the fact that Western nations are supplying weapons without involving themselves directly into the conflict makes it clear that they are aware of the consequences of an armed confrontation with a nuclear power. Russia, too, wanted to establish that balance of power when it put its strategic arsenal on alert and clearly defined the set of circumstances under which it would use the nuclear option: Being attacked at home or being attacked in Ukraine by another nuclear power or using arms supplied by another nuclear power. This is good news: It established red lines that cannot or should not be crossed without triggering a catastrophic consequence.

Fact 2: The West has used its most powerful non-military tools to push Russia out of Ukraine: Sanctions. The sanctions were so swift and broad that they surpassed all sanction regimes ever imposed on a non-compliant nation-state including Cuba and Iran. Combined the two countries have been under sanctions for nearly a century–Cuba has been sanctioned for nearly 50 years and Iran has been under some Western sanctions for more than 40 years. Since sanctions have been used before against non-friendly nation-states, including against Russia most recently when it reclaimed Crimea, Russian leaders must have anticipated them. This is important because it helps in understanding the distance the Russian leaders are willing to go in pursuit of their objectives.

Together, from the above facts and the events explained below, it is not unrea-sonable or hard to predict that Russia will achieve its declared objectives in-cluding:

    • Block Ukraine from joining NATO or any other military alliance that Russia would deem a threat to Russian national security;
    • Annex large Ukrainian territories to autonomous republics that will become part of the Russian Federation; and
    • Normalize the status of Crimea as permanent Russian territory.

These are the obvious and stated objectives. However, Russian leaders were well-aware that these achievements alone will not be enough because none of the political and economic ramifications of the initial incursion can be erased just by ending the armed conflict. Russian leaders know that the world will be transformed in ways similar to when it was transformed after the European wars of the early 20th century. This is evident from the systems that the Russian leaders have established over the last ten years and activated immediately after the start of the military operation. We cannot account for all systems in this limited space. However, we can provide a representative list of some of the most determinant systems that might help understand the nature of the new century and the forces that will drive its events.


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Sunday, August 28, 2022

Tebboune: I agreed with Macron to establish a full partnership with mutual respect

    Sunday, August 28, 2022   No comments

 

Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune announced that he had agreed with his French counterpart, Emmanuel Macron, to "establish a full partnership between their two countries in the light of mutual respect."


During a joint press conference with Macron, who arrived in Algeria today for a 3-day official visit, Tebboune said: "I agreed with Macron to establish a full partnership in light of the principles of respect and a balance of trust between the two countries... We aspire to enhance trade exchange between Algeria and France."


"I discussed with Macron the situation in Libya, Mali, the Sahel and Western Sahara," he added.


For his part, Macron told his Algerian counterpart: "We have a common, complex and painful past, which contributed somewhat to not looking at the future... We have to look at this past with the will of truth... Let's open the archives from the beginning of the (French) occupation to independence without taboos... And this in order to build the future.


The French president considered that "we did not choose the past, but rather we inherited it, and we have the responsibility to build the future for ourselves and for future generations."


French President Macron arrived in Algeria today, Thursday, "hoping to build trade relations and turn the page on a diplomatic dispute," and was received by Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune.

Relations with Algeria became more important for France, because the Russian special military operation in Ukraine led to an increase in Europe's demand for North African gas, and because of the increased migration across the Mediterranean.

 It is noteworthy that Algeria canceled, today also, the entry visa of the chief rabbi of France, "Haim Corsia" because of his support for "Israel", according to what a reliable source told "Al-Mayadeen", who stressed that "Algeria will not be drawn towards normalization and rejects it in all its forms, and it is firm on the Supporting just causes, most notably Palestine and Western Sahara.


Last July, Tebboune sent a congratulatory message to his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, on the occasion of his re-election for a second presidential term, in which he expressed his "satisfaction with the quality of our personal relationship characterized by trust and affection, and with the developments achieved, albeit relatively, by the Algerian-French partnership."


In it, Macron called for a visit to Algeria "soon, to launch together a dynamic that pushes forward in dealing with major issues, and to intensify and expand Algerian-French relations."

Last March, the Algerian president declared that the "crimes of French colonialism" in Algeria will not be subject to a statute of limitations, calling for a "fair treatment of the file of memory and history in an atmosphere of frankness and trust."


This came after relations between the two countries fell to their lowest level, when Macron said he doubted the existence of an "Algerian nation" before French colonialism.


Damascus breaks its silence: This is our plan for normalization with Ankara

    Sunday, August 28, 2022   No comments

 by Alaa Halabi

Damascus broke its silence over the “slithering” messages coming to it from Ankara, declaring from the pulpit of Moscow, which is engaged in a difficult mediation with Tehran, between the Turkish and Syrian neighbors, that it does not mind restoring relations with Turkey on a solid and clear basis, which guarantees it the restoration of its control over its entire territory, and paves the way for the start of a real Syrian-Syrian dialogue. Despite the diplomatic and media rush shown by Turkey towards Syria, the normalization path, which is currently managed by the intelligence agencies in both countries, seems to take time, unless Ankara takes dramatic steps, through which it can accelerate this path, in which investment seems a priority. For Recep Tayyip Erdogan


Following a long meeting in Moscow, the day before yesterday, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad and his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, made compatible statements focused on the two issues of Syrian refugees and the US presence in Syria. The last title, with its accompanying emphasis on the necessity of the exit of US forces as a necessary condition for resolving the Syrian crisis, has become the backbone of the efforts of the guarantor states of the “Astana track” (RussiaIran and Turkey), in addition to forming a suitable ground to open the closed doors between Ankara and Damascus. From here, the two ministers recalled the sabotage role of the American forces that seize most of the Syrian oil regions, as well as their support for the Kurdish separatist project, which represents one of the most prominent obstacles to reaching a political settlement in accordance with United Nations resolutions, as well as threatening the territorial integrity of Syria, and impeding the return process. Refugees return to their homes due to the living and economic pressures imposed by Washington on Damascus. This position, and before it the statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan against the policies of the United States, foretells the existence of a preliminary agreement between Turkey and Syria from which to proceed towards political talks that are working to develop those currently being waged by Syrian and Turkish intelligence services, according to what Ankara announced.

In what could be considered the first official Syrian statement in this regard, after a long period of silence, which seems to have been deliberate, Miqdad, in his response to journalists, denied the existence of conditions for normalizing relations, adding that there are fundamental issues that must be addressed “on the basis of respect for the sovereignty of states,” adding The first entitlements before the two countries are “ending the occupation, stopping support for terrorism, non-interference in internal affairs, and solving water problems.” Reiterating that Damascus does not trust “those who sponsor and support terrorism,” he considered that “when we reach such a solution, it will be in the interest of Syria and Turkey, and it will be a prelude to restoring relations to what they were before the war began.” Al-Miqdad’s words draw clear signs of what Syria aspires to, whether in terms of ending the Turkish military presence on its lands, or in terms of stopping Ankara’s support for the opposition groups, which Damascus sees as emptying the “Syrian solution” project of its content. It appears that Syria is receiving support, in this vision, from its Russian and Iranian allies, especially in light of the latter's continued rejection of any new Turkish military attack on Syrian regions, which was explicitly expressed by Lavrov at the same conference, recalling the existence of agreements between Damascus and Ankara (Adana Agreement). Security Treaty signed in 1998) through which Turkish security concerns can be removed through diplomatic means.


As a result, the current situation can be summarized as the beginning of a Turkish turn towards Syria, through which Ankara is rushing to achieve gains, whether in the form of finding a solution to the refugee problem, or by reaping field and political gains that Erdogan can spend in the presidential election race in Turkey, which will intensify as the date approaches. In June of next year. On the other hand, Damascus wants a clear road map, which guarantees the restoration of its control over all parts of the country, and the transformation of Turkey from a party to the conflict to an auxiliary element in the solution. Both demands represent part of a long path that requires consensus on many overlapping and intertwined points, in light of the complex situation in northern Syria, where Ankara, through its affiliated factions, controls the countryside of Aleppo and Raqqa, at a time when Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Al-Nusra Front) is unique. , which has also become affiliated with Turkey, by controlling Idlib, which is the largest stronghold of the "jihadist" groups.

In the face of the field, political and even economic equation (in view of the increasing pressure on Ankara, its desire to play a greater role in energy-related projects in the region, and the conditions that must be present to ensure the return of Syrian refugees), it seems that Russian and Iranian efforts have managed, so far, to open a window of During which, continuous security talks were held between Syria and Turkey, aimed at finding solutions to field issues in a sequential manner, and paving the ground for the transition to political action. This means that the normalization process will take a long time, unless Ankara, which wants to speed up its pace, takes the initiative to translate its diplomatic rush into similar operational steps on the ground.


  


Thursday, August 25, 2022

Dmitry Medvedev predicts the outcome of the war in Ukraine: Victory or military coup--Tertium non datur

    Thursday, August 25, 2022   No comments

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that the scenarios for the development of the situation in Ukraine are no more than "one and a half".

Medvedev noted that this includes the achievement of all the objectives of the special military operation and the recognition of its results by the Kyiv authorities or the occurrence of a military coup in Ukraine and the subsequent recognition of the results of the military operation.

"Analysts of all stripes are competing in preparing forecasts for the Ukrainian conflict," Medvedev wrote on his Telegram channel, and the Kyiv authorities and Western pro-Ukrainian countries are preparing "predictions of victory."

“But in reality, it is all lies and demagogy to deceive voters. Everyone understands it all. They are just executing roles. There is only one and a half scenarios. The first is the achievement of all the goals of the special military operation and the unequivocal recognition of its results in Kyiv. The second is the military coup in Ukraine, and only after that the recognition of the results of the special operation.”


The statement:


Analysts of all stripes are practicing forecasting the Ukrainian conflict. Here The Guardian came up with five pieces. Forecasts of victory are being built in Kyiv and in the Ukrainian-affiliated countries of the West.

In fact, all this is pure lies and demagogy for the treatment of the electorate. Everyone understands everything. But they work out the roles.


There are only one and a half scripts.

The first is the achievement of all the goals of the [operation] and the unequivocal recognition of its results in Kyiv.

The second is a military coup in Ukraine, and only then the recognition of the results of the special operation.


That's all the options.

Tertium non datur!

     

Meanwhile, today, Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the number of members of the Russian Armed Forces by 137,000, bringing the total number of soldiers to 1,150,628.


The presidential decree stated: "The number of the Russian Armed Forces has been set at 2,039,758, including 1,150,628 soldiers."


On Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia is a superpower that pursues a policy that meets its interests.


On the occasion of the Russian Flag Day, Putin said that "Russia is a great power that will not pursue any policy in the international arena that contradicts its basic interests," noting that his country "will always follow traditional values."

 


Tuesday, August 23, 2022

"Tasnim": Assad and Erdogan may meet at the Shanghai summit in Uzbekistan

    Tuesday, August 23, 2022   No comments

The Iranian "Tasnim" news agency reported, quoting informed sources, that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "may meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which is expected to be held next September in Uzbekistan."

The agency quoted the sources as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin "invited Erdogan to participate in the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan, and Putin also asked Assad to participate in this meeting."


Earlier, Erdogan said that his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, invited him to attend the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan in September.


Meanwhile, Turkish media revealed that President Erdogan and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar al-Assad, may hold a phone call, during the coming period, at the suggestion of Putin.


In the context of the Turkish-Syrian rapprochement, the agency indicated that the leader of the Turkish "Homeland" party, Dogu Perincek, "will soon head to Syria as part of a political and diplomatic delegation, where he will meet and hold talks with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad."


She added, "Berncik will be accompanied on this trip by a number of former ministers and veterans of Turkish diplomacy, and a report on the results of this trip will be submitted to the Turkish authorities."


In this context, it was pointed out that the Turkish delegation's trip to Syria will be the first from a Turkish airport to Damascus in about 10 years, as direct flights between the two countries have not been operated since 2011.


The Iranian agency stated that "the focus of this trip will be on ways to restore relations, the joint struggle against terrorism in northern Syria, and the return of Syrian refugees," as it put it.


It is noteworthy that the Kremlin announced on August 9 that the two Russian Presidents, Vladimir Putin, and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, discussed the situation in Syria.


It is noteworthy that the regular summit of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be held next September in the city of Samarkand in Uzbekistan, which is currently the head of the organization.


Mevlut Cavusoglu : A dialogue is taking place between the Syrian and Turkish intelligence services

Today, Tuesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said that "there is a dialogue taking place between the Syrian and Turkish intelligence services."


Cavusoglu stressed that "Turkey does not have preconditions for dialogue with Syria," noting that "dialogue with the Syrian government must have specific goals."


The Turkish minister said: "A meeting was not planned between the Turkish and Syrian presidents in Shanghai, because Assad will not participate in the summit," as he put it.


Earlier today, the Iranian "Tasnim" news agency reported that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad "may meet at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which is expected to be held next September in Uzbekistan."


The agency quoted sources as saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin "invited Erdogan to participate in the meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Uzbekistan, and Putin also asked Assad to participate in this meeting."


It is noteworthy that the regular summit of the leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will be held next September in the city of Samarkand in Uzbekistan, which is currently the head of the organization.


Monday, August 22, 2022

Pakistan: Charges of terrorism against Imran Khan and prevents broadcasting of his speeches

    Monday, August 22, 2022   No comments

Pakistani authorities deploy the "terrorism" label to address political dissent, risking instability and further uncertainty.

On Monday, Pakistani police charged former Prime Minister Imran Khan with terrorism charges, who is leading popular demonstrations calling for early elections.

The former prime minister of Pakistan accused the government of briefly blocking YouTube in the country to prevent Pakistanis from listening live to his speech at a political rally on Sunday evening.

"The importing government blocked YouTube in the middle of my speech," Khan said in a tweet.

Demonstration in Pakistan against the continued detention of a leader in the "Insaf" party

Supporters of the Pakistan "Insaf" party led by Imran Khan demonstrated against the authority's continued detention of the party's leader, Shahbaz Gul, 10 days ago.


The demonstrators demanded the release of Shahbaz Gul, who is the deputy head of the party. Simultaneously, the local government in Punjab - led by allied with Imran Khan - issued an arrest warrant for 12 officials in the ruling party.


Saturday night's protest gathering was followed by the arrest of a prominent leader of the "Insaf Movement", who was accused by the authorities of making statements against the army on a TV channel whose broadcast was later suspended.


Criticism of the military establishment that has ruled Pakistan for nearly half of its 75-year history is a red line.


Asad Omar, a senior official in the "Insaf Movement", denounced the move by the media regulator to ban Khan's speeches. "Banning Imran Khan's speeches is another attempt to find an administrative solution to a political problem," he told AFP. He added that his party would file an appeal against the decision before the court.


Simultaneously, a decree was issued banning TV channels from broadcasting live speeches by former Prime Minister Imran Khan.


The media regulator issued this decision against the background of a speech in which Khan criticized police and judicial officials after the arrest of one of his party leaders.


The authority said that Khan "is making baseless accusations and spreading hate speech," adding that "his provocative statements against state institutions and officers will cause disturbances - most likely - to public peace and tranquility."

Pakistan opposition warns Khan's arrest would cross 'red line' after being reported under anti-terror law


Pakistani opposition leaders warned Monday that the authorities would cross a "red line" if they arrest former Prime Minister Imran Khan, after he was reported under the Anti-Terrorism Act over comments he made about the judiciary.

Since being ousted in a no-confidence vote in April, Khan has organized rallies across the country, warning state institutions including the military not to back the coalition government led by his longtime political rival Shahbaz Sharif.

Hundreds gathered outside Khan's home on Monday, apparently with the aim of preventing police access, but Khan has been facing a raft of charges for several months, and he has yet to be arrested.

For his part, former Information Minister Fouad Chaudhry wrote on Twitter, "Wherever you are, go to Bani Gala today and show solidarity with Imran Khan," referring to Khan's home. "Imran Khan is our red line," he added.

An initial police report was filed on Sunday as the first step in a process that could lead to formal charges and an arrest.

A light police presence was observed outside Khan's residence Monday, as about 500 supporters of his party gathered in the affluent suburb.

Muhammad Ayub said he traveled overnight from Peshawar in the northwest to be on site to show support for Khan.

"We will protest and block the roads if Khan is arrested," he told AFP.

Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party said in a statement that the latest accusations against him were "frivolous".

"We have serious reservations about this politically motivated step, which leads to more instability in the country," he added.

Khan on Saturday criticized a judge responsible for keeping a party official in police custody, after party leaders said he was tortured in custody.

Khan's main goal is to hold an early general election before the expected date before October 2023, but the government has shown no indication that it is willing to go to the polls at a time when it is facing significant economic problems.

Since he was ousted from power by a vote of no-confidence last April, Imran Khan has organized a series of popular anti-government demonstrations.


The ban came into effect immediately on Saturday night, the same day Khan held a rally in the capital where he criticized police and judiciary officials over the arrest of one of his party leaders.


Khan remains popular among young people, with his speeches attracting the highest viewership ratings on television channels, while his highlights are widely shared on social media.


Who is Alexander Dugin, who is described as Putin's brain, and whose daughter Daria was killed by Car Bomb in Moscow?

    Monday, August 22, 2022   No comments

Aleksandr Gelyevich Dugin is said to have great influence on Russian politicians including the current president, Vladimir Putin. His daughter killed by a car bomb. The Russian authorities announced the killing by detonating her car with an explosive device planted under the driver’s seat in a suburb of the capital, Moscow. Daria Dugin worked as a press secretary for her father, who is described as "Putin's brain", a nationalist and one of the most prominent theorists of the Kremlin's ideology who predicted the end of the era of Western liberalism.

To learn more about Dugin, we provide a summary of his ideas that he shared with Aljazeera network in an extended set of interviews (See interview1, and interview 2; Arabic) in which he talked about Russia, the West, Christianity, Islam, Chechnya, Sunnism, and other topics.


Russian identity and change

On the other hand, Dugin spoke to Al Jazeera about the Russian identity and the radical change that he said had affected it over the course of one century, as the country was an empire with its faith and perception, and after the Bolshevik Revolution, perceptions changed dramatically, and in 1991 the Russian identity changed again and Russia became part of The Western world, then Putin, changed identity again and Russia became a powerful country that defends its own conservative values, according to what the Russian philosopher says.

 

On Russian identity, "Putin's mind" says that his country is changing its position and "we are in a spiritual search for ourselves", and it is sensitive to changes.

 

However, Dugin confirms - in the first part of his meeting in the episode (14/11/2021) of the "The Interview" program - that Western tendency is still largely present within Russia, and there is a liberal elite and strong resistance to President Putin's reforms on the part of liberal intellectuals, and that This Western tendency hinders the special orientation of Russia.

 

He also believes that other civilizations have the right to rely on their own political teachings that are based on their own values, not on Western values.

 

He indicated in the context of his review of his identical vision with his president's on the Chechen issue, which he said Putin had found a solution for, as well as with regard to Georgia and Ukraine and the annexation of the Crimea in 2014.

 

Fourth political theory

The Russian thinker Alexander Dugin focused in the second part of his interview with the "The Interview" program on the fourth political theory, which he said is an anti-capitalist tendency, and talked about his vision of terrorism and its relations with Iran and Turkey.

 

Dugin described the fourth political theory as the theory of revolution and decolonization for Russian society, and it defends the originality of Russian civilization and human rights, but not according to Western values, which he said are not totalitarian and are unacceptable neither in Russia, nor in the Islamic world, nor in China.

 

Definition of terrorism

In the interview, Ali Al-Dhafiri's guest linked the issue of defining terrorism to the interests of states, and gave an example of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who said that he supported Washington's position after the September 11, 2001 attacks, and in return was waiting for the US administration to classify those he called the Chechen separatists in the category of Terrorists, which did not happen, and the Russian thinker says that Putin understood at that time the meaning of geopolitical considerations.

 

In another context, Dugin - one of the most prominent political theorists in Russia - saw that Iran is an ally of Russia and is one of the opponents of globalization and American leadership, and that radical Sunni Islam in the Arab world had supported the American strategy in the MiddleEast, but the new generation of leaders - continues the speaker - In SaudiArabia, Qatar and Egypt, he is looking for a new approach to Arab Sunni Islam, and he believes that staying in the orbit of American policy is bad for the Islamic world.

 

He also talked about his ideas, and said that he is a supporter of Islamic traditional values ​​in Iran, but nevertheless he has strong relations with Turkey, noting in his touch on Russia's future that Russia is Putin and he determines everything in politics, to conclude his speech by saying that in his country "the law does not something and rule everything."

 

It is noteworthy that after Putin took power in Russia, a new phase began in Dugin's political activity when he moved from the radical opposition camp to the pro-power camp.

 

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